Weekly Review of China's Steel News (First Week of 2026)

In the first week of 2026, China's steel export market, especially the hot-rolled coil (HRC) segment, showed a sluggish transaction trend. Affected by the lingering impact of the Christmas holiday, overseas buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, leading to weak overall trading activity.

Market feedback indicated that only a small number of small-batch transactions were concluded during the week. The transaction prices were mainly concentrated in the range of 458-460 US dollars per ton FOB China, while the mainstream quotations remained at 465 US dollars per ton FOB China and above.

Despite the weak overseas demand, the low-priced non-tax-included resources have basically withdrawn from the market, providing certain support for export prices. Traders pointed out that with the formal implementation of the export license management policy for some steel products on January 1, 2026 , suppliers have significantly increased their attention to compliance risks and adopted a more prudent pricing strategy. This has further reduced the available low-priced resources in the market .

Domestically, the futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, providing limited guidance for exports. Overall, affected by the year-end off-season and policy uncertainty, the short-term export prices lack a clear direction. Market participants are mainly focused on digesting existing inventories and waiting for new market guidance.

In the Southeast Asian market, Vietnamese buyers maintained a cautious attitude towards Chinese HRC resources, with some demand shifting to Indian sources. For Indian HRC, the quotations for conventional-width SS400 products were 483-485 US dollars per ton CFR Vietnam, and those for SAE1006 resources were 478-480 US dollars per ton CFR Vietnam. There were also cargo transactions concluded at 480-482 US dollars per ton CFR Haiphong.

Affected by anti-dumping expectations and China's new export policies, the quotations for Chinese wide-coil HRC to Vietnam were slightly adjusted upward to 478-480 US dollars per ton CFR Vietnam. However, the actual number of inquiries was limited, as the market mostly waited for new price guidance from local mainstream steel mills. It is worth noting that Vietnam, as a major importer of HRC in Southeast Asia  , its demand shift may have a certain impact on the regional trade pattern of hot-rolled coils.

Looking ahead, the short-term operation of China's HRC export market will still be affected by multiple factors such as the implementation of export license policies, changes in overseas market demand, and regional trade environment. Market participants need to closely track policy trends and overseas demand dynamics to respond to potential market fluctuations in a timely manner.