Brazil Extends Final Ruling Deadline for Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese Hot-Rolled Coils

Brazil's official gazette announced on December 26 that the final ruling deadline for the anti-dumping investigation launched against Chinese-origin hot-rolled coils has been officially extended to July 20, 2026.

The Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) stated that the extension is intended to complete the final analysis of injury and causal relationship, as well as to review additional economic data and materials submitted by relevant stakeholders. The investigation was officially initiated on June 2, 2025, due to the preliminary determination by the investigating authority that there is sufficient evidence of dumping and that it has caused material injury to Brazil's domestic steel industry.

This investigation originated from an application jointly filed on October 30, 2024, by Brazilian domestic enterprises ArcelorMittal Brasil S.A., Gerdau Açominas S.A., and Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A., and has received official support from Aperam Inox América do Sul and Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional.

The scope of the investigation is limited to Chinese-produced hot-rolled coils, mainly involving products under Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM) codes 7208, 7211, 7225, and 7226, covering specifications with widths exceeding and less than 600 millimeters, excluding stainless steel, silicon steel, tool steel, and coated products. Exporters will be selected based on sampling, with the reference pool consisting of 20 Chinese steel enterprises whose total crude steel output reached 386 million tons in 2017, accounting for 46.4% of China's total output that year. When determining the normal value, due to restrictions on obtaining fully comparable domestic price data in China, the investigating authority has adopted the United States as the surrogate third country.

The evidence-gathering period of the investigation is scheduled to end on April 21, 2026. During this period, MDIC will collect, examine, and verify evidence related to dumping, injury, and causal relationship, including questionnaire responses, price, cost, and quantity data. The conclusions of this phase will provide the basis for the investigating authority's final ruling.

The entire procedure is expected to be completed on July 20, 2026. At that time, the Brazilian government may decide to impose final anti-dumping duties or terminate the investigation without taking any measures.

Market Reaction: Short-Term Import Supply Expected to Remain Unaffected

Market participants believe that this extension is unlikely to disrupt the recent import supply of hot-rolled coils. They pointed out that against the backdrop of regulatory uncertainties facing Chinese steel products, buyers have long begun to seek diversification of import sources. Some traders reported that South Korean steel products are currently selling actively in the domestic market. Other importers added that the extended deadline is consistent with the complete import logistics cycle (including production, maritime transportation, and customs clearance); taking shipments via the Port of São Francisco do Sul as an example, the existing time frame is sufficient to cover the entire process of production, transportation, and customs clearance.