After the Lantern Festival, the Spring Festival is over, and the market will officially open after the year. According to the app data of sinosteel.com, the national development and Reform Commission will organize and hold a "reminder and warning meeting" for the smooth operation of the iron ore market today. The iron ore plummeted, and the recovery range of social inventory of the five major steel varieties has expanded compared with the previous period. At the same time, the new and old infrastructure will work together to stabilize the investment. For more details, please continue to look back
1、 Spot market
Construction steel: down
Today, the mainstream of the building materials market is down. The futures snail market was weak and volatile. The mood of the spot market in North China was poor, the price fell, the merchants locked in profits, mainly shipped goods, and the transaction was light; The price of steel mills in Southwest China is very high, the market continues to fall, and the actual transaction price is chaotic. It is estimated that the market price of building materials will be adjusted steadily tomorrow.
Hot rolled coil: down
Today, the mainstream of the National hot roll fell, the volume fell, iron ore fell sharply, and the support of raw materials weakened. The recovery of superimposed demand is relatively slow, the transaction is sluggish, and the market panic is strong. It is expected that the market price of hot coil will be reduced tomorrow.
Medium plate: downward
Today, the national medium-sized board is down, the futures are down, the market high is slightly down, and the quotation of some merchants is stable. At present, the situation of taking goods at the terminal is still not ideal. The market trading atmosphere is cold and the transaction performance is different. It is expected that the market price of medium-sized and thick board will be stable, medium and weak tomorrow.
Strip steel: down
Today, the national steel strip fell, the overall market transaction was poor, the merchants mainly operated at a low price, and the terminal goods were still very few. Considering the weakening of cost, it is expected that the strip steel market will be adjusted in a stable and weak manner tomorrow.
Profile: stable medium and low
Today's price is stable and down. The futures mine fell sharply, the current mine was lowered, the cost support moved down, and the futures snail held the green operation, which suppressed the trading sentiment in the spot market. The market inquiry is cold and the overall transaction is light. It is expected that the price of tomorrow will be stable and down.
Pipe: main steady rise
Today, the pipe market mainly rose steadily. Today, the snail market fluctuated and operated green, the cost fell sharply, and the market panic rose. However, the price in the early stage was high and it was difficult to ship. Some merchants yearned to ship at a lower price. However, most traders waited and waited during the price decline, and the overall trading of the market was flat. Overall, the pipe market is expected to decline steadily tomorrow.
2、 Raw material Market
Iron ore: down
Today, the market price of iron ore decreased. For imported minerals, the general index fell $0.75 last night, and now 62% of the general index is $149.4. The domestic mining industry has almost dropped by the limit. In terms of steel mills, after anticipating the sharp decline in prices, the operation that originally had the demand for replenishment has also been suspended and wait-and-see strengthening. Mine prices are expected to decline in the short term, and the overall risk of mine prices is expected to intensify tomorrow.
Today, the domestic coke market is stable and weak. With the increasing demand of some steel mills, their enthusiasm for coke procurement has increased, the inventory pressure of coke enterprises has eased, and some coke enterprises have shrunk their profits due to the reduction of coke price, and their resistance to the reduction of coke price has increased slightly. However, considering that some steel mills still have great efforts to limit production and the inventory of some mainstream steel mills is high, they are still willing to increase and reduce coke price, The coke market is expected to be stable and weak tomorrow.
Scrap: main steady rise
Today, the scrap market price mainly rose steadily. Affected by the downward impact of the futures disk shock, the billet transaction is general, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the price shows a weak trend. With the start-up of electric arc furnace steel plants, the activity of scrap market is restored and the demand for scrap steel is increased. With limited resources, scrap is expected to rise steadily tomorrow.
Pig iron: steady
Today, the domestic pig iron market operates weakly and stably, and the transaction is not good. In recent days, the finished materials have declined, the pressure on raw materials has increased, the air atmosphere in the market is strong, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is low, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the shipments of local iron mills are not fast. However, at present, the inventory of iron mills is small, which slightly supports the iron price, and the merchant quotation is mainly stable. In order to promote the reduction of the shipping price, individual iron mills are expected to have a stable, medium and weak price adjustment in the pig iron market tomorrow.
3、 There are several influencing factors
1. New and old infrastructure should be combined to stabilize investment
After the Spring Festival, many places held the "first meeting of the new year" mobilization and deployment, started a series of major projects, made concerted efforts in new and old infrastructure, and fully opened the "tiger force" of stable investment. According to incomplete statistics, as of February 14, more than 10 provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong and Zhejiang have announced the list of major project investments in 2022, with a total investment of more than 100 billion yuan. Infrastructure construction, especially transportation and energy, is still the focus of efforts, and new infrastructure such as 5g and data center construction are also given more expectations.
2. CISA: in early February, the social inventory of 5 major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 12.36 million tons
In the first ten days of February, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 12.36 million tons, an increase of 2.73 million tons month on month, an increase of 28.3%. The recovery range of inventory was expanded compared with that in the early stage; An increase of 4.48 million tons over the beginning of the year, an increase of 56.9%; An increase of 650000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 5.6%.
3. The national development and Reform Commission will organize a "warning meeting" on the smooth operation of the iron ore market today
In order to ensure the stable operation of the iron ore market, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, together with the State Administration of market supervision and the futures Department of the CSRC, will hold a "special meeting on reminders and warnings" in the afternoon of February 15. At that time, relevant enterprises including Minmetals Group, CITIC metals, AVIC international mineral resources, Xiamen Jianfa, Jidong development, Xiamen international trade, Zhongda of products, Zheshang Zhongtuo, Xiamen Xiangyu and so on will participate in this reminder and warning special meeting. The above participating enterprises are important participants in the field of domestic iron ore trade.
4、 Comprehensive view
In the continuous introduction of economic stabilization policies and the gradual development of various measures, new and old infrastructure work together to stabilize investment. At present, enterprise production continues to remain vigorous, and investment and employment have increased. At present, the overall macroeconomic situation is good. With the resumption of construction after the tenth five year plan, the demand for steel is increasing, and the characteristics of peak season will gradually appear. Meanwhile, in the first ten days of this month, the recovery range of steel social warehouse was expanded compared with that in the early stage. With the resumption of work and production, the supply tension was alleviated and the supply and demand were more coordinated. However, taking into account the recent tightening of iron ore supervision by multiple departments, the sharp decline of iron ore and the panic in the spot market, it has formed a certain negative impact on the steel price. To sum up, it is expected that the spot market price of steel will continue to decline tomorrow, with a decline of about 20-50 yuan / ton